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Home sales dipped in June

National Association of Realtors’ data shows existing home sales fell 1.2% in June. In spite of the slip, NAR chief  economist Lawrence Yun said there is still market momentum, even as interest rates climb.

The nations tight housing stock rose by 1.9 percent in June to 2.19 million equivalent to 5.2 months supply, still well below the 6 months supply considered a normal healthy market.  Due in part to the limited inventory of existing properties for sale many single family homes are selling above asking price and there is strong expectation of continued increase in home prices. In spite of the rosy picture pointing to higher prices and continued recovery, there are signs of concern.

First time homebuyers accounted for only 29 percent of  home buyers in June 2013 compared with 32 percent in June 2012. Low inventories of available homes, combined with rising home prices and interest rates plus tight mortgage qualification conditions are definitely limiting the number of first time homebuyers entering the housing market.

To sustain what is still a fragile housing  recovery, interest rates and rising home prices must be normalized to enable the entry of more first time home buyers into the market place.  First time homebuyers are the engine that drive the housing market, without them there is only stagnation.

Distressed homes,  foreclosures and short sales accounted for 15 percent of June sales down from May’s 18 percent recording the lowest market share since monthly tracking began in October 2008. The average sale price of foreclosures and short sales in June was 14.5 percent below market price. The declining  number of foreclosures and short sales within the market place will be another factor contributing  to the upwards pressure on home prices.

The national median existing single-family home price was $214,700 in June, which is 13.2 percent above a year ago. The national average mortgage rate of a 30 year fixed rate conventional loan is presently 4.375% up from 3.375 in May.  So how will this 1 percent rise in interest rate affect homebuyers?

One percent rise in interest rate cost homebuyers an additional  $57 for every $100,000 borrowed. Homebuyers buying an existing single family home at the national median price of $214,700, using a conventional loan with 5% down payment at a rate of 4.375%,  would have monthly payments of $1,018.37 P&I approximately $117 more than in May before the rate increase.  

The past months rapid increase in mortgage rates could delay many first time buyers entry into the housing market in this slow recovering economy.